Netflix Acccount Cancellation Honor Roll

If you have chosen to cancel your Netflix Subscription please comment here with name and amount of cancel.

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Netflix Stock Up on News – For Now

Sure – the thought of increased revenue is going to drive the stock up.

If 10% of people cancel for even 90 days though I estimate it will cost the company $117 million in lost revenue.

Based on stock performance – this could lower stock price significantly.

Consumers DO have a voice in this… can you take the challenge and hold out 90 days.

Maybe a look at the insider trading over the 3 months leading up to the price hikes will motivate you…

Is squeezing an extra $2 billion out of your customers really the right move

INSIDER TRADES LEADING UP TO THE PRICE HIKE:  $600 K a Day must be nice pay.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=NFLX+Insider+Transactions

 

 

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Netflix – Join the Protest – With Account Hold Feature

 

 

 

Sadly – the discovery of this feature reminded me how great a company Netflix is.

Nonetheless, I used this feature today to put my account “On hold”, as promised.

$75 in lost revenue to Netflix – not a big deal to them.  But I hope we grow 1 Million Strong.

When you put your account on hold – you can specify a date that billing will begin – you can also activate again at any time.

That way – you can stay with Netflix as they work through this crisis – and hopefuly remedy their reputation.

Remember to post your Account Hold screen shot online and log our Honor Roll so we can tally our success.

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Amazon Is About To Rain On Netflix's Parade With Original Content

 

Image representing Netflix as depicted in Crun...

Image via CrunchBase

Amazon is following Netflix’s lead in creating original shows to differentiate its streaming service, Amazon Prime. [1] It appears that this strategy may be adopted across the board by online streaming providers, and the conflict with pay-TV companies is not going to be Netflix’s sole problem. What this also means for Netflix is that its content advantage that comes from having original and exclusive content will be diminished slowly.

See our complete analysis for Netflix

For Amazon, the incremental value add as a result of growth in subscriptions to its Amazon Prime service is limited as the company derives a huge amount of value from its online retail business. However, the adverse impact on Netflix resulting from Amazon’s growth in this regard could be substantial given the sensitivity of its stock to subscriber growth and content costs.

We estimate that close to 60% of Netflix’s estimated $110 stock value is hinged on our expectation that Netflix will have close to 40 million subscribers by the end of our forecast period. If that doesn’t happen and the subscriber base grows to only 30 million, there could be a 15% downside to our current price estimate.

Our price estimate for Netflix stands at about $110, implying a premium of about 60% to the market price.

Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis

Notes:

  1. Amazon gets into content business with 4 original TV shows, venturebeat.com, June 24 2012 [↩]

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Cloud News: Eucalyptus, Fujitsu, Netflix, Oracle

    Here’s a roundup of some of this week’s headlines from the cloud computing sector:

    Fujitsu and Eucalyptus partner for private clouds. Eucalyptus Systems announced that Fujitsu Frontech North America has selected Eurcalyptus to power the NuVola Private Cloud Platform offering. The partnership pairs Eucalyptus’ on-premise Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) software with Fujitsu’s server and storage appliances and virtualization software to provide a purpose-built, prepackaged on-premise cloud offering. ”Our partnership with Eucalyptus furthers our vision of delivering integrated IT-based solutions, while reinforcing our longstanding reputation for quality and performance,” said Vic Herring, Vice President of Sales and Marketing, Cloud Infrastructure Solutions Group at Fujitsu Frontech North America. “Eucalyptus is the most widely deployed on-premise IaaS solution on the market based on its open approach to cloud computing and highly scalable architecture. This unmatched level of industry leadership, coupled with seamless integration and compatibility with AWS, makes Eucalyptus a powerful partner in helping our customers realize the benefits of the cloud.” The NuVola Private Cloud Platform solution is available immediately.

    Netflix releases Asgard to open source. In a recent blog post Netflix describes one of its cloud management tools, Asgard and the announcement that it has been released to open source on github.  Asgard is named for the home of the Norse god of thunder and lightning, because Asgard is where Netflix developers go to control the clouds. Asgard is available for download and requires only an Amazon Web Services account and the need to manage cloud deployments. Built for the large scale cloud needs that Netflix has, Asgard was built to fit its needs beyond the Amazon console, such as hiding Amazon keys, support for auto-scaling groups (ASG), enforcing conventions, logging user actions, automating workflow and publishing a REST API to hide some of the complex steps from the user. A detailed presentation of Asgard was given by Netflix project lead Joe Sondow at the GR8Conf conference earlier this month in Copenhagen.

    Oracle unveils Health Sciences Network. Oracle (ORCL) announced availability of Oracle Health Sciences Network, a portfolio of integrated, cloud-based applications that enable healthcare providers and research institutions to collaborate more efficiently with life sciences organizations using de-identified healthcare information. Protocol Validator and Patient Recruiter are the first two applications, and will enable clinical investigators to rapidly identify patient cohorts, determine protocol feasibility and recruit consented patients for clinical studies based on clinical and genomic characteristics. The new network is built on a secure, HIPAA-certified cloud, and enables healthcare systems to actively participate in clinical research and development with life sciences companies. As the first healthcare system to work with Oracle on this initiative, Aurora Health Care played a particularly significant role in the creation of Oracle Health Sciences Network. In addition to contributing considerable expertise and resources, the organization provided consented, de-identified electronic medical records throughout the development cycle. “To accelerate delivery of safer, more effective and personalized treatments, organizations across the healthcare value chain are increasingly seeking new ways to work together,” said Neil de Crescenzo, senior vice president and general manager, Oracle Health Sciences. “Oracle Health Sciences Network creates a secure bridge that helps all stakeholders, including bio-pharma companies, health systems, and regulators, collaborate securely to raise the effectiveness and efficiency of our health system.”

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    Amazon Is About To Rain On Netflix’s Parade With Original Content

     

    Image representing Netflix as depicted in Crun...

    Image via CrunchBase

    Amazon is following Netflix’s lead in creating original shows to differentiate its streaming service, Amazon Prime. [1] It appears that this strategy may be adopted across the board by online streaming providers, and the conflict with pay-TV companies is not going to be Netflix’s sole problem. What this also means for Netflix is that its content advantage that comes from having original and exclusive content will be diminished slowly.

    See our complete analysis for Netflix

    For Amazon, the incremental value add as a result of growth in subscriptions to its Amazon Prime service is limited as the company derives a huge amount of value from its online retail business. However, the adverse impact on Netflix resulting from Amazon’s growth in this regard could be substantial given the sensitivity of its stock to subscriber growth and content costs.

    We estimate that close to 60% of Netflix’s estimated $110 stock value is hinged on our expectation that Netflix will have close to 40 million subscribers by the end of our forecast period. If that doesn’t happen and the subscriber base grows to only 30 million, there could be a 15% downside to our current price estimate.

    Our price estimate for Netflix stands at about $110, implying a premium of about 60% to the market price.

    Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis

    Notes:

    1. Amazon gets into content business with 4 original TV shows, venturebeat.com, June 24 2012 [↩]

    Like our charts? Embed them in your own posts using the Trefis WordPress Plugin.

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    Amazon’s LoveFilm, taking on Netflix, adds Fox in Britain


    Tue Jun 26, 2012 7:46pm IST

    (Reuters) – LoveFilm, Amazon’s European DVD and movie streaming service, has agreed to stream movies and TV shows from News Corp’s Twentieth Century Fox TV unit, adding content from another Hollywood studio to compete with Netflix’s six-month-old British service.

    The agreement gives LoveFilm exclusive access to older episodes of TV shows such as Fox’s “24″ and the motorcycle drama “Sons of Anarchy” from Fox’s FX cable channel, LoveFilm said in a statement.

    The deal adds to the exclusive streaming deals the British service says it has signed with outlets that include NBC Universal and Sony and Warner Brothers to give its subscribers exclusive access to movies like Warner’s “The Dark Knight” and “Sex and the City 2.”

    Most of LoveFilm’s’ deals cover the so-called “second pay window,” which follows a period of several months during which pay channels like Britain’s Sky Movies have the rights to air those movies and TV shows. The first pay window begins about a year after the movie appears in cinemas.

    LoveFilm, which was acquired by Amazon in February 2011, says it has 2 million subscribers in Britain, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, and Norway for its DVD and streaming service.

    Netflix started a streaming service in Britain and Ireland in January with movies and TV shows from Disney, NBC, Paramount, Fox and others.

    A Netflix spokesman was not immediately available for comment.

    Netflix said in an April letter to shareholders that it has 23 million streaming subscribers in the United States, and 3 million in Canada, Latin America and Britain.

    It does not break down its international numbers by country.

    Satellite operator BSkyB, Britain’s largest provider of subscription TV services, controls movies from Hollywood’s largest studios in the earlier “first pay TV” window.

    On May 23, Britain’s Competition Commission ruled that BSkyB does not dominate the British pay-TV movie market, citing the new entrance into the market by LoveFilm and Netflix.

    The commission had previously found that Sky’s subscriber base of more than 10 million homes gave it an advantage over rivals who struggled to bid for rights to first-run Hollywood movies.

    While the commission said BSkyB still held the rights to the movies of all six major Hollywood studios for the first subscription pay-TV window, it said Netflix and the Amazon-owned LoveFilm had already acquired rights to several other studios.

    (Reporting by Ronald Grover; Editing by David Brunnstrom)

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    Gaikai streams video games the way Netflix streams movies [Los …

    June 26–When Mike Bemiss was looking for a new video game to buy, he hopped on a site operated by Gaikai Inc. and clicked on “Dragon Age 2.”

    Within seconds, the 37-year-old engineer from Erie, Pa., was able to play the game right from his browser — with no download, no game console and no credit card. He liked it so much that he bought the game, along with the previous game in the series.

    Headed by industry veteran David Perry, Aliso Viejo-based Gaikai operates a streaming service that is like Netflix for games. Users get a free look at the first 15 to 30 minutes of a game that interests them. If they decide to buy, they’re sent to a retailer or the game’s publisher.

    “It’s changed the way I shop for games,” Bemiss said. “I can cut right to the chase and see if it’s a game I’m going to like.”

    Cloud gaming has been talked about as the next big thing for more than three years. Several companies have already built streaming services, including OnLive Inc., Playcast Media Systems, Tenomichi/SSP’s StreamMyGame and Media Speed Tech’s GameStreamer.

    Since then, streaming game technology has become increasingly available to consumers in the U.S. and Europe who have grown comfortable with the idea through streaming music and video. Game publishers are starting to see streaming games as a potential avenue for reaching new players while combating piracy. And even retailers such as Wal-Mart and Best Buy have embraced Gaikai’s try-before-you-buy streaming service as a way to accelerate sales in their stores and on their websites.

    “This is how people consume media these days,” said Wanda Meloni, a media analyst with M2Research. “Consumers have gotten used to getting content instantly. What Gaikai is doing fits right into this new consumption pattern.”

    Not everyone believes that the market is ready for streaming games technology. Internet delivery sometimes involves a slight time lag. Players of shooter games require instantaneous reaction times. The loss of even a millisecond can ruin a player’s chances in a shooter game like “Call of Duty” or “Halo,” which are among the most popular games on the market.

    “Nobody wants to be in the middle of a death match and have the game start to buffer just as they’re about to make a kill,” said Geoff Keighley, executive producer of MTV Network’s GameTrailers TV.

    Perry, Gaikai’s chief executive and co-founder, is a 45-year-old Irish-born game developer known for titles such as “Earthworm Jim” and “Enter the Matrix.” He believes that the ability to stream games will be a boost to the $50-billion global games industry. Free from the disc, games could flow to numerous devices that have Internet connections, Perry said.

    Gaikai has agreements to stream full games to smart television sets such as the ones coming out later this year from Samsung and LG, as well as to tablet devices including the Wikipad, a gaming tablet that uses Google’s Android operating system and is set to launch sometime before the holidays.

    Under current agreements, Gaikai’s game publishing clients — such as Electronic Arts Inc., Ubisoft Entertainment, THQ Inc., Capcom, Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment and Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. — pay the company a service fee to stream their titles to hundreds of websites, including Facebook, YouTube, Wal-Mart.com, Best Buy and numerous game review sites.

    The 4-year-old company is privately owned and does not disclose its financial performance. But its technology is promising enough that it has raised more than $50 million in funding from Benchmark Capital, Rustic Canyon Partners, New Enterprise Associates, Intel Capital,

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    Amazon’s LoveFilm Takes On Netflix


    Amazon’s LoveFilm Takes On Netflix

    Amazon’s LoveFilm, the European DVD and streaming movie service announced on Monday that they plan to take on Netflix. The company will compete with the British service by streaming movies and TV shows that normally belong to News Corp’s Twentieth Century Fox TV unit, says Reuters.

    The competition between companies that stream movies has just become tougher due to the agreement that LoveFilm has signed with another Hollywood studio. The Amazon-based company will, thus, have the authority to stream movies and DVDs that were created by Twentieth Century Fox. This move gives LoveFilm the power they needed to take over the British service provided by Netflix.

    The announcement wrote that LoveFilm will gain exclusive access to some of the TV shows produced by Fox. Among them, Internet users will be able to watch series like “24” and “Sons of Anarchy”. The UK-based service has signed numerous other deals, including one with NBC Universal, one with Sony and another one with Warner Brothers. They insisted on obtaining streaming rights from the previously mentioned companies because they wanted subscribers to be able to watch series like “The Dark Knight” and “Sex and the City 2”.

    One of the spokespersons from LoveFilm explained reporters at Reuters that the deals that were signed also cover the so-called “second pay window”. This means that the streaming services have to wait several months before they can get the rights for the movies and the TV shows. Until then, pay channels have the right to air those productions.

    Although LoveFilm has only been under Amazon’s protection for a year, the streaming service has 2 million subscribers. The majority of them are set in Britain, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, and Norway. The British service provided by Netflix, on the other hand, has 23 million subscribers in the United States and 3 million in Canada, Latin America and Britain. They plan to gather many more subscriptions in the future thanks to the deals they have signed for movies and TV shows produced by Disney, NBC, Paramount, Fox, etc.

     

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    Netflix Takes the Plunge into Streaming

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    j.a. is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network — entries represent the personal opinions of our bloggers and are not formally edited.

    Streaming content is going to change the face of Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) at least for the near term. Content is in high demand and unlike DVDs, there is no break for quantity or number of rentals. Netflix is in a race to acquire the most desirable programming they can afford that will secure a big enough customer base to make them highly profitable. In 2012, they had negative profits and the beginning of this shift is off to a shaky start for many reasons.

    The high cost of streaming

    Streaming content has a high price tag. In 2008, Netflix was able to buy 2500 titles from Starz for $30 million per year. Starz and Netflix parted ways in February 2012 when a deal could not be reached for renewal. Rumor has it Starz wanted at least $200 million per year. Starz was important to Netflix for its catalog of more current programming including movies and original content. Workaround deals with Disney and other studios directly are costly and have not replaced all titles. Even older programming on second tier networks like CW (going bankrupt before the Netflix deal) is premium priced. Netflix is reportedly paying $1 billion for 4 years of older episodes of Vampire Diaries and Gossip Girl among others.

    The battle for exclusivity and new movies and television has made it a seller’s market.

    Over the last five years, acquisition of streaming content has gone from $48.3 million in 2008 to $2.3 billion in 2011. Additions to the streaming content library were $765 million in Q1 2012. The total gross streaming library is now at $3.2 billion with $3.7 billion in obligations not included on the balance sheet.

    In 2007, Netflix invested record capital expenditure of $223 million for DVDs (not including revenue sharing). In 2011, they spent only $85 million for DVDs. The gross DVD library is $581 million and is now largely depreciated. DVDs are largely paid for and do not consume much in investment dollars. With the cash flow from DVDs, it is a business segment worth keeping for now.

    Compared to the DVD investment and gross library, streaming content is expensive and completely transforms the business model decreasing both cash flow and free cash flow. Looking at the cost of content/revenue shows how much revenue is “consumed” by the cash cost of content acquisition and is a rough measure of the efficiency of streaming vs DVD. Cost is cash cost and not additions to the streaming content library. Cash cost includes amounts found on the cash flow statement as well as a “hidden” cost in the cost of subscription from the profit and loss statement. 

    Cost of subscription dissected:

    In millions


    These numbers are not available from the company even by request (I emailed them and was told it was proprietry) and they are my estimates.

    To get cost of streaming, change in liabilities is subtracted from additions to streaming content on the cash flow statement and streaming content costs from the above table are then included. The result is a higher cash cost than we find either through using amortization as a proxy or simply the cash flow statement number.

    In millions


    The costs have risen impressively over the past three years and the estimated  Q1 cost was $445.3 million for just three months. The costs will increase sequentially every quarter according to management and 2012 spending for streaming will be a record high. It will continue to pressure margins although NFLX expects an increase in the streaming content operating margin at 2% in Q2 and 1% Q3 and Q4. I am not convinced it’s going to increase by 4% by 2013 and it should be tracked. 

    Content spending/revenue

    Streaming content has only been an expense since 2007 and was negligible through 2010. It has steadily increased over the past four years.

    In Q1 2012, streaming cash cost rose to 51% of revenue. As content costs become a bigger percentage of revenue, profit becomes more elusive turning to negative profits in Q1 2012.

    Domestic subscription additions and revenue growth slowed in Q1 even as operating expenses grew. International expansion is strong but subscriber numbers are still low and the revenue generated does not support the cost of content and marketing. Netflix earnings were in the red for Q1 and the stock price suffered an extreme and entirely logical correction.

    In addition to the expense of streaming content found on the financial statements (profit and loss, balance sheet and cash flow statement), there is a substantial obligation coming due that does not meet the criteria for library content found in the footnotes only.

    Cash flow from operations was only $19 million in Q1 2012 compared to $116.3 million in Q1 2011. Free cash flow dropped to $780,000 from $78 million in 2011. Most of the decrease was due to the increase in additions to streaming content. 

    Obligations

    in millions 

    The bulk is due 2012-2015 and will be in addition to any newly acquired content. As streaming costs continue to climb and are unlikely to either flatten or decline through 2015, higher subscriber growth is the only strategy that will increase gross margins. There are no plans to tier or increase pricing. 

    Margins


    Margins through 2011 were relatively stable. The higher spending for content was partially offset by decreased spending in shipping and handling of DVDs. Revenue and subscriber increases were high enough to maintain margins even with escalating streaming costs. That changed in Q1 2012 as margins disintegrated.

     Quarterly margins

     Part of the problem was slowing subscriber adds and revenue on top of rising streaming content costs.

    The other hit to margins was an increase in marketing spending the last two quarters to push NFLX growth internationally. It’s easy to see why the company reached a peak share price between May-September of 2011 with the remarkable numbers it was turning in. Success now is going require international expansion. In March 2012, domestic streaming increased only 9% to 22 million subscribers and international was up 257% to 2.4 million. There is very little chance higher/tiered pricing will help revenue at least in the near term.

    The future

    Netflix has beat challengers into obsolescence in the past. Blockbuster folded, as did Wal-Mart’s attempt to enter the rental DVD business. The content wars are different -– bidding for programming puts the owners of content in control. Prices for premium content are subject to demand –demand is high. DVD prices were cheap and negotiable.

    HBO — part of TimeWarner (NYSE: TWX) will not let go of premium content at any price and has set up their own streaming service for original content like the enormously popular Game of Thrones. Comcast has launched Xfinity for $4.99. Starz and Netflix could not reach a deal after Starz discovered its content was worth a great deal more than $30 million per year. The new world of streaming content is more treacherous and more expensive than the rental of DVDs where Netflix was the undisputed leader.

    Reed Hastings

    As we move up in the content buying economic strata, you start off with kind of a low-end nonexclusive content and then as you want to get shows like Mad Men, you have to outcompete with other cable networks that get those shows in syndication and those are exclusive licenses, and so we started giving more and more of those. As we want to do direct deals with movie studios like DreamWorks Automation, the other bidders will not take that content if we also have it. So those are de facto exclusive. So this exclusive trend has been going on towards more and more exclusive and will continue as we climb the economic strata and have better and better content. It’s a natural outcome of us being a network like other cable networks, all of which are exclusive against each other. I don’t think we’ll have all of our content and really at any point in time, because we’ll continue to also have a broad range of non-exclusive content, but certainly will be more and more that is exclusive.

    Outlook – Increased Seasonality in Net Adds

    Netflix expects to see 15% streaming margins in Q2. They were 13.1% in Q1 (compared to 45% for DVDs). For Q3 and Q4 they are looking for 1% improvement each quarter and possibly extending it into 2013. In order for that to happen, streaming costs have to grow more slowly than revenue.

    Estimates 

    The company guided to 7 million net subscriber additions. The gross adds are projected at around 11 million. Taking seasonality into account and adjusting for the churn, revenue increases by an estimated $535.9 million to $3.7 billion for 2012. The growth would be 17%.

    Streaming content library additions were $2.3 billion in 2011 and would need to come in below $2.7 billion if Hastings is using 17% growth as a cap. Netflix already spent $765 million in Q1 leaving less than $1.9 billion in the budget for the remainder of 2012.

    If cash costs are used, $926 million is the upper limit of cash left for content Q2-Q4. Using either figure does not allow for the aggressive content acquisition strategy Netflix has been using over the past year to attract customers.

    If they can stay within budget, even at the high end, streaming costs/revenue would moderate to 35% and allow for the margin expansion they are looking for. I’m betting they will overspend. Popular programs and movies are expensive and they need great content to compete.

    Netflix plans to continue spending on original content and that will come out of the streaming content budget leaving even less to buy premium movies and TV. They have targeted 5% spending. A high value/quality production like Game of Thrones costs $5 million per episode. For a season of 9 episodes that’s $45 million. The costs are high but well within the budget even for high quality work. Netflix may be aiming for a lower budget and less expensive production at least at first. It’s not a bad investment if they can locate good directors and quality scripts.

    At 29% subscriber growth and 17% revenue growth estimated for 2012, Netflix is not the company it was. These growth rates may be the best we can expect and returns to historic numbers at 40%-60% are unlikely. The new normal may not make Netflix much of a momentum stock, but if it can continue to grow in the teens and combine that with meaningful margin expansion, $65 per share could prove a reasonable entry. Ultimate success depends on acquiring the great and often expensive programs needed to attract subscribers with a disciplined acquisition strategy that won’t destroy margins and profits. The new reality is that content owners are in control and they will be bidding up the best movies and TV as competitors scramble for exclusivity and quality that snares subscribers.

    Competition

    Hulu launched its first original series, and has continued its platform (Wii) and country (Japan) expansion. While we have ten times more domestic paid members, and we added over three times more domestic net additions than Hulu in Q1, we do watch them carefully. Most of their viewing, we believe, is from current-season broadcast-network content.

    Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) continues to grow its U.S. video content library available through Amazon Prime. We think they are still substantially behind Hulu in viewing hours. Given Amazon’s size and ambitions, we continue to track their progress carefully as well.

    Value

    A discounted cash flow is not an exact science but can give a rough idea of value under a reasonable set of circumstances. For Netflix the subscriber number growth can be used as a reality check when looking at what number of subscribers it takes to support a certain level of revenue. If Netflix could grow at a compounded annual growth rate over 10 years of 10%, revenue would reach $8.7 billion and would require 86 million subscribers paying $7.99 per month. The company has guided to as many as 90 million subscribers—they do not mention a time frame. This is what it would take to get to almost $9 billion in revenue. To put that into some context, Netflix has grown from $272 million in 2003 to an estimated $3.8 billion by the end of 2012 – a 14-fold increase. The discounted cash flow requires a 2.7X increase in revenue and a 3-fold increase in subscribers in 10 years. It seems conservative, but the super-charged growth of the past decade will be hard to replicate under current conditions. The expenses are escalating and the competition is unrelenting.

    Netflix has substantial off balance sheet streaming obligations.  I decided to treat that as debt and it lowered the value just as any debt would in a DCF. It seems a fair treatment of this expense that is not captured in the current capex estimates or net income.

    The value at 10% CAGR accounting for 86 million subscribers and $8.7 billion in revenue in year ten gives Netflix a value of $75 and is close to where the company trades today. It’s a long way from $300.

    The streaming content obligations treated as debt decrease the value and if they are not included, the price per share climbs to $136. It is necessary to put them in somewhere. If they are ignored, the company gets this future spending for free. It is not included in either capital spending or as part of cost of sales i.e. subscription costs.

    In the end, Netflix is worth what the market will pay. If the high growth story of the past resumes, $75 is low. There is nothing like momentum for taking a stock to stratospheric levels. If current conditions prevail and bidding for programming continues to drive costs and subscribers are fractured across different services, then growth will moderate and $65 represents only a slight undervaluation.

    I would be surprised if Netflix in 10 years looks even remotely similar to Netfix 2012. The streaming middleman model could be replaced or at least supplemented by a Netflix that becomes part of a cable/satellite package. They could also become a heavy weight in original content if they can find financial success and a knack for creating popular programming. A model that holds them static as subscriber-only at $7.99 is conceptually flawed. I would wait to see what the company does next.

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    Netflix open sources Asgard cloud deployment smarts

    Very few companies know how to scale and deploy cloud applications like Netflix, the ginormous movie streaming site. And now it’s making some of that cloud management expertise available to the masses via Github.

    On Monday, the company open sourced Asgard,  a Grails and JQuery web interface that Netflix engineers use to deploy code changes and manage resources in the Amazon cloud in a massive way. The technology was named after the Norse god of thunder and lightning but was once known as the Netflix Application Console or NAC. And it offers some capabilities that the AWS Console does not.

    Asgard, for example, helps engineers track the multiple Amazon Web Service components — AMIs, EC2 instances etc. — used by their application and manage them more efficiently.

    As Joe Sondow, the Netflix senior software engineer who leads the project, wrote in the blog:

    When there are large numbers of those cloud objects in a service-oriented architecture (like Netflix has), it’s important for a user to be able to find all the relevant objects for their particular application. Asgard uses an application registry in SimpleDB and naming conventions to associate multiple cloud objects with a single application. Each application has an owner and an email address to establish who is responsible for the existence and state of the application’s associated cloud objects.

    There’s more information on Asgard and its inner workings here and here. It’s techie stuff but one of Asgard’s chief benefits is that it enables very fast roll-back. So if you’re performing a massive code deployment and something doesn’t look quite right, you can reverse that process on a dime, according to Netflix.

    The Twitterverse was impressed.

    Netflix is an early and huge adopter of AWS, but has also bolstered that cloud where needed with projects like Asgard. Now third parties can utilize Asgard to manage their own massive code rollouts (and press that fast rollback into service as needed.)

    Related research and analysis from GigaOM Pro:
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    If Everyone Got Their BBC Fix Through Netflix, Could It Wipe 80 …

    bbcww image

    The VoD service Netflix has been leading a charge for consumers to watch more on-demand, digital video — with its service aggregating TV and film content from a number of media players now attracting more than 25 million subscribers, and bringing new audiences to that content. But just how much of an impact on traditional, physical sales are digital companies like Netflix making if they were to grow even further?

    Quite a lot, it seems. According to one account of a presentation made last Friday by Dan Heaf, EVP and managing director of digital for BBC Worldwide (the BBC’s commercial arm), Heaf reportedly said that if everyone got their BBC content via services like Netflix at its current subscription rates — the equivalent of $7.99 or £5.99 per month — it could wipe out 80 percent of BBC Worldwide’s revenues. To be clear, the BBC, which didn’t invite media to the event, has denied the percentage. But it does admit that its digital business is less profitable and generates less revenues for it right now as they transition away from more traditional forms of media, and that is driving the company to find new ways to grow that digital business:

    “Audiences are transitioning from physical to digital platforms and BBC Worldwide understands the importance of using these new platforms in order to grow reach and revenue. However, as digital platforms can be less profitable than traditional physical platforms, BBC Worldwide is managing the transition by developing new additive [digital] revenues,” a spokesperson says, citing live events, BBC.com and BBC Global iPlayer as three of these.

    Heaf’s reported comments were made last Friday, at an event to mark the launch of BBC Labs, a new incubator/mentorship program to find innovative (and potentially revenue-generating) digital content services. Fostering startups with good ideas to spin BBC content is one route for the BBC to shore up digital returns as physical sales continue to erode.

    “These additional revenues will ensure that we can continue to invest more into original content which we make available around the world.  We continue to collaborate with existing partners while also searching for and supporting new ones hence the launch of BBC Worldwide Labs,” says the spokesperson.

    The launch of BBC Labs comes at a time of change at the corporation: on Friday it was also announced that Jana Bennett would step down from her role as president of Worldwide Networks and the Global BBC iPlayer, as part of a larger reorganization where global product divisions have been replaced by regional divisions.

    While the BBC uses partnerships such as the one with Netflix to increase its reach and find new audiences, it’s also looking to build out its own direct offerings further. Its iPlayer service, initially developed as a free offering for UK audiences only, is now available as an app (free with in-app purchases) in 16 countries, and there is talk of a further commercial product, built as more of an iTunes rival, covering a wider catalog of current and archival programs. However, Project Barcelona, as the service is called, may be facing some problems: according to this report from paidContent, there is some conflict between BBC Worldwide and its parent over how such a service would get implemented and who would run it.

    In the meantime, the BBC’s partners in expanding its customer base worldwide continue to grow their own offerings to woo consumers. Netflix, in a kind of arms race against Amazon, has been building up its content relationships to make itself more attractive to consumers — and as its scale grows it is bound to have better leverage in its negotiations with content companies. The latest of these incremental steps was actually taken by its rival: Lovefilm, Amazon’s UK subsidiary, announced today it has signed a large deal with 20th Century Fox.

    There are others looking to become more involved as well. Google TV just yesterday announced that it would finally be breaking ground in the UK, in a TV partnership with Sony. Google is likely to make more TV announcements this week during its I/O developer event.

    BBC Labs could be one route for the BBC to look for innovation and new services for the future that it offers itself, widening what it does beyond basic program delivery.

    The BBC is taking a wide approach to the Labs project. It says it will consider early-stage startups in web applications, gaming, virtual worlds, mobile, advertising technologies, advanced video applications, connected TV, community and collaborative software and CRM, “to name a few.”

    The Labs project is a six-month program aimed specifically at startups in the UK — ultimately five will be chosen for the program, and the aim is to help selected participants “gain traction and scale by working closely with them with the objective of helping them strike a commercial partnership with BBC Worldwide.”

    No equity stakes are taken, and no actual cash funding will be passed along. Instead, “We… focus on promoting innovation through mentorship and access to the varied resources of BBC Worldwide.” That includes marketing, sales, advertising and legal help, as well as free office space at the BBC Media Centre, technical resources and mentoring and networking events.

    BBC Worldwide’s most recent financial figures in its annual report indicated that in 2011, it made sales of £1.15 billion ($1.8 billion) overall. Within that, digital entertainment accounted for only 2.3 percent of revenues, or £27.1 million ($42 million), compared to £14.5 million in 2010. Overall digital brought in £81.9 million across all of the BBC. Digital entertainment; however, it still made a loss of £6.8 million ($10.6 million) — although that was significantly down on losses of over £17 million in 2010. (2012′s figures will be out next month, a BBC Worldwide spokesperson tells me.)

    There is a clock ticking on how the BBC will leverage digital in the long run. Currently the BBC still makes much more in revenues and profit from physical video sales, largely in the form of DVDs. In 2011, this business brought in £192.3 million ($300 million), with profits of £43.3 million, according to the annual report, but sales are slowing down: that was only £1 million in more in profit over 2010.

    Heaf’s remarks on Friday underscored the trend we’re seeing here: he projected that DVD would remain a revenue stream for another 10 years, before it got killed off by VOD.

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    Gaikai streams video games the way Netflix streams movies

    When Mike Bemiss was looking for a new video game to buy, he hopped on a site operated by Gaikai Inc. and clicked on “Dragon Age 2.”

    Within seconds, the 37-year-old engineer from Erie, Pa., was able to play the game right from his browser — with no download, no game console and no credit card. He liked it so much that he bought the game, along with the previous game in the series.

    Headed by industry veteran David Perry, Aliso Viejo-based Gaikai operates a streaming service that is like Netflix for games. Users get a free look at the first 15 to 30 minutes of a game that interests them. If they decide to buy, they’re sent to a retailer or the game’s publisher.

    “It’s changed the way I shop for games,” Bemiss said. “I can cut right to the chase and see if it’s a game I’m going to like.”

    Cloud gaming has been talked about as the next big thing for more than three years. Several companies have already built streaming services, including OnLive Inc., Playcast Media Systems, Tenomichi/SSP’s StreamMyGame and Media Speed Tech’s GameStreamer.

    Since then, streaming game technology has become increasingly available to consumers in the U.S. and Europe who have grown comfortable with the idea through streaming music and video. Game publishers are starting to see streaming games as a potential avenue for reaching new players while combating piracy. And even retailers such as Wal-Mart and Best Buy have embraced Gaikai’s try-before-you-buy streaming service as a way to accelerate sales in their stores and on their websites.

    “This is how people consume media these days,” said Wanda Meloni, a media analyst with M2Research. “Consumers have gotten used to getting content instantly. What Gaikai is doing fits right into this new consumption pattern.”

    Not everyone believes that the market is ready for streaming games technology. Internet delivery sometimes involves a slight time lag. Players of shooter games require instantaneous reaction times. The loss of even a millisecond can ruin a player’s chances in a shooter game like “Call of Duty” or “Halo,” which are among the most popular games on the market.

    “Nobody wants to be in the middle of a death match and have the game start to buffer just as they’re about to make a kill,” said Geoff Keighley, executive producer of MTV Network’s GameTrailers TV.

    Perry, Gaikai’s chief executive and co-founder, is a 45-year-old Irish-born game developer known for titles such as “Earthworm Jim” and “Enter the Matrix.” He believes that the ability to stream games will be a boost to the $50-billion global games industry. Free from the disc, games could flow to numerous devices that have Internet connections, Perry said.

    Gaikai has agreements to stream full games to smart television sets such as the ones coming out later this year from Samsung and LG, as well as to tablet devices including the Wikipad, a gaming tablet that uses Google’s Android operating system and is set to launch sometime before the holidays.

    Under current agreements, Gaikai’s game publishing clients — such as Electronic Arts Inc., Ubisoft Entertainment, THQ Inc., Capcom, Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment and Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. — pay the company a service fee to stream their titles to hundreds of websites, including Facebook, YouTube, Wal-Mart.com, Best Buy and numerous game review sites.

    The 4-year-old company is privately owned and does not disclose its financial performance. But its technology is promising enough that it has raised more than $50 million in funding from Benchmark Capital, Rustic Canyon Partners, New Enterprise Associates, Intel Capital, Qualcomm Inc. and others.

    In addition, Gaikai has caught the eye of other investors who may be interested in plunking down even more money for a sizable piece of the company, according to people knowledgeable about Gaikai who declined to go on the record because the discussions are confidential. A company spokesman declined to comment on the matter.

    Among its potential suitors are large cash-rich Asian companies. Firms such as Japan’s Gree and DeNA, as well as China’s Tencent Holdings, have spent billions buying U.S.-based online game companies in recent years.

    Gaikai’s name is based on a Japanese word for the open ocean, a term that suggests limitless possibility.

    “Just like the open ocean, streaming allows games to be distributed a thousand different ways,” Perry said. “Players are no longer tied to a console or a high-end computer when they want to play triple-A, high-quality games. They can now do so on any device, even cellphones with 3G or 4G connections.”

    The technology shifts the computational heavy lifting traditionally done by game consoles and PCs to servers in data centers all over the world. Users receive a stream of the game, but not the complex underlying mathematical calculations. This is appealing to game publishers because none of the game code is streamed, which means that the games can’t be copied and pirated. And because there is no disc, players can’t resell it to retailers who peddle used games, which returns no revenue to publishers.

    “It is the future of gaming,” said Daniel Ruf, a 21-year-old media designer in Nieder-Liebersbach, Germany, who used Gaikai to test-drive a demo of “The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings,” an action role-playing game. Ruf, who lives in a small hamlet outside Heidelberg, said he values the convenience of being able to instantly “play games at any time, in any place” with an Internet connection via a Web browser.

    For game consoles, however, streaming services could be highly disruptive, M2Research’s Meloni said. Console manufacturers such as Microsoft Corp., Sony Corp. and Nintendo Co. make the bulk of their revenue from licenses that publishers pay to have their games on the consoles. When games can be streamed to any screen, publishers may question the need to pay console licenses.

    Sony and Nintendo declined to comment for this story. A Microsoft spokesman said streaming games was not “optimal,” at least for now. Nintendo has said its new Wii U console will continue to play discs, and Sony’s next PlayStation and Microsoft’s next Xbox are expected to do the same.

    But in a recent interview with British website MCV, Phil Spencer, corporate vice president of Microsoft Studios, said although disc-based games will endure a little longer, “In the long run, we’ll land in a spot where there’s cloud distribution of all content.”

    alex.pham@latimes.com

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